Hi,
In a recent report by the Lowry institute, NZ ranked first in its response to the pandemic. Australia was rated eighth. Not bad, except, remember that Australia has a distinct advantage over many many other countries because it is an island and has very few ports of entry.
Now, consider the ranking, if the incompetent pandemic response by Victoria which was responsible for the second wave, was taken out. I feel sure that Australia (excluding Victoria) would have ranked about second, even taking into consideration the botched Ruby Princess episode.
New Zealand has had 25 deaths compared with about 100 (excluding deaths in the second wave in Victoria). Considering the different populations, that is very roughly the same percentage of deaths per capita.
If dictator dan and his cho spent less time beating their gold standard chests and more time learning from the other States and territories and New Zealand, Victorians would be far better off.
I am not surprised by this outbreak, but I am not as worried about it as I was during the second wave. The VicHS is more competent, more experienced, and more agile than a year ago. This was demonstrated by the speed that the outbreaks at Chadstone, Kilmore, and Shepparton, at the tail end of the second wave were controlled.
So I expect that it will be contained. I also suspect that it will not be as big as the last outbreak in NSW which peaked at 201 local cases on 11th January 2021. But NSW contained that outbreak without putting the entire state into lockdown. The current lockdown over the whole of Victoria is a sign that VicHS does not yet have the same degree of confidence as NSW, WA, SA, or Qld. These have all had recent outbreaks and were all contained without resorting to a state-wide lockdown.
The good news is that VicHS is faster at contact tracing and identifying locations. So whilst I have not changed my mind about the idiots at the top, I do believe that the lower ranks have the necessary smarts. So, in the second wave, Victorians suffered to prevail despite the mistakes made by an incompetent government and health department, DHHS. This time, I suspect that Victorians and the VicHS will prevail despite the government and the cho.
Seems like the shelves have already been stripped of toilet paper. Woolworths have no milk.
take care
Mike